IndexGain xDivs Explained

Implied Matchday Dividends was a statistic IndexGain first released at the tail end of 2018. No stat in isolation is perfect, but as stats go this one could be very illuminating. So we have decided to dust it down, upgrade it and give it a brand new name. So without further ado, may we present to you xDivs.

‘What’s xDivs’ we here you ask. To date, all Football Index dividends have simply reported what the player has earned in the past. But what if instead we could take a sideways look and work out what players could have expected to earn (given their score and the day type) for each score they generated?

Before we get going, it’s worth remembering that that xDivs are specific to matchday dividends only. It doesn’t consider media related dividends so it can’t help you determine when that next Pogba media generating haircut will be!

So how does xDivs work exactly?

After all, any trader can view previous performance scores and get a general sense of the players likely chance of earning potential dividends in the future. The problem with this approach is it’s too simplistic and looks at the players score in isolation.

The xDivs report analyses all player scores, not just winning ones, by position and day type to determine the probability of each possible score winning on a given day type. It then uses that probability to calculate a weighted dividend.

Let’s have a look at an example:

If a player scored 25 points on a gold match day, then it is expected that they would have a 0% chance of winning the 8p positional dividend. The xDiv is therefore calculated at 0p.

If that same player scored 600 points on that same gold day, it is expected they would have a 100% certainty of winning the 8p dividend. The xDiv is therefore 8p.

Now imagine the player scored a more realistic yet still very commendable score of 230. They would then have a 50% expected chance of winning the 8p dividend, which translates into an xDiv of (8p x 50%) 4p.

Distribution of weighted divs for the scores on a gold day

Buzz takes each player score for each match day and creates xDivs for each category – GK/DEF, MID, FWD and STAR. It then sums them to create a total dividend yield per player.

Lastly, it looks at actual dividends generated by each player and compares this against the Buzz generated xDivs to see which players are overperforming or underperforming, or put in a simpler and perhaps more accurate way, which players have been lucky and which ones have been unlucky with dividends earned to date.

Anyone can only ever ride their good luck for so long, mean reversion is the theory that returns will eventually return to the long-run average of the underlying data.

Put another way, Las Vegas treats big winners with free room upgrades and other special treatment, all to keep them playing at the tables. Because the casinos know that eventually the punters luck will run out and they revert to mean and the house wins.

How has this dividend calculation changed?

Aside from the rebrand to xDivs, put simply it is much more accurate. Since its initial release, there have been updates to both the performance matrix and the dividend payout structure by Football Index. As such work has taken place here at IndexGain to ensure the xDivs calculated on match day reflect both the scoring matrix and the performance dividends that were in place on any particular game day. Last season the maximum for a positional win on a Gold day (excluding star man) was 5p, so the max xDivs for games taken place during this period will be 5p. This season as maximum positional (excluding star man) is 8p, the max xDivs award is 8p. We have not standardised this caclulation then to reflect the payout and matrix as of today. Instead xDivs reflect the rules in place for each specific match day. 

The total sum xDivs therefore can contain match day xDivs that take place over varying matrices and dividend structures. This is the best way to represent the sum xDivs and to compare against the actual dividends received to highlight potentially off radar undervalued players.

So just which players have been the unluckiest so far this season?

If you are thinking Kimmich, then you would be wrong (a surprise to us too). Just to note, for all our examples in this article we will include all league and cup matches for the current season, but exclude international matches.

So who then? To do this we sort by the Diff column, ascending on the column as above. Just click on the column name to sort by it.

We can then see that Kevin De Bruyne tops our list as unluckiest FI player this season. Over the 33 games he was in the squad the xDivs for KDB with the scores he earnt on each Matchday amount to 34p. However, he has actually banked a comparatively poor 16p (an 18p difference, less than half the xDivs total).

That’s one unlucky Belgian.

Let’s use the filters this time to find another unlucky example. Setting the maximum age to 30 and the maximum price to £1 returns the following.

Yes, Adrien Thomasson has returned zero matchday dividends this season. However, his xDivs total is actually 7p which, that is an 8.75% return already this season had the cards fallen a little more favourably for holders.

And what about the luckiest?

(sharp inhale of breath).

To do this we sort by Diff column, descending on the column as above.

We can then see that two players top our list as joint luckiest FI players so far this season. Gerard Deulofeu with 25 appearances so far, xDivs come to a total of 3p. However, he has actually banked a very respectable 13p (10p more than his xDivs total).

Sharing top spot with Deulofeu is Maxwell Cornet with 16p earnt this season already versus xDivs of 6p (again 10p more).

Lucky indeed. 

Something important to note.  A lucky player does not necessarily mean they are a bad investment. 

As with actual divs, these xDivs should be considered hand in hand with price. A ‘lucky’ player who has received more actual divs than xDivs (and likely also received trader price action), could still be an attractive option if they are relatively cheap.

Similarly, an unlucky player may be unattractive if they are currently overpriced. The sweet spot is those unlucky players with high xDivs, that haven’t received price action due to being off the radar, and who are still low priced. This leads nicely onto xDiv yield.

What is the xDiv Yield?

The report also includes the xDiv yield of each player.  That is the % return in xDivs in relation to the current player buy price.

Buzz has identified several that have an xDiv yield greater than 15% already this season.  To view these players or to find many more lucky and unlucky players, then click here.

You will need to have Premium membership to view. Not upgraded yet? It takes just seconds to unlock our BuzzPro reports, additional forum channels and BuzzBot commands.

 

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