IndexGain view – Market both reacts to and contemplates the Share Split

The share split announcement did not disappoint on Monday evening, it felt like the market had built in some expected dividend rise as part of the split but many traders seem to have been taken aback by the size of the increase. Let’s recap what those changes were.

So what is changing?

On March 26th at 6am:

  1. Shares will be split by 3.
  2. Dividends will increase on average by 28% per share.
  3. In-Play dividends (IPDs) have seen the biggest increase – namely Defender goals (100%), Keeper clean sheets (50%) and any positions assists (200%).

The full dividend table can be seen below

Is media changing at all?

As at the start of next season, squad players will be eligible for media dividends (no longer just the top 200 then). However, FI have concluded that only 7% of squad players would have won dividends – so whilst the pool will still be small, it should make transfer speculation and big match incidents much more exciting.

What about plans for this summer?

Football Index have also specified there will be some additional bonuses in relation to media dividends over the Summer. An announcement on 15th April will inform traders what those plans are. You can watch this FiTV episode with Adam and Mike to find out a bit more about the summer plans and why media is opening up across the whole board rather than just the top 200.

How did the market react?

Due to the 100% increase in defender goal IPD’s, the initial market reaction was to pounce on both VVD (up 11% at time of writing) and Kimmich (up 13%), defenders with proven goal scoring ability. Both Kimmich and VVD have scored or come very close on a number of occasions – VVD has media buzz on his side also.

We can use BuzzPro Advanced Player Screener AMD (Actual Match Data) to view match stats for this season for each player and sort by shots on target to help pick out some defenders who have an increased chance of scoring. Here’s an example of the top 4 sorted by shots on target:

Goalkeepers are also seeing some money as the 50% increase in clean sheet dividends adds further value to this position category.

Other notable winners post announcement included Trent Arnold Alexander, who as a set piece taker benefits from assist dividends increasing by 200%. Other winners include Sebastian Haller, Granit Xhaka and Nabil Fekir who has strong media rumours and a nice set of fixtures until the end of the season.

Premium traders can use the BuzzPro Fixture Difficulty Report to help plan for the next few weeks during this international break.

Interestingly the market has not reacted in the same way as a deposit bonus, which is usually a bun fight as traders jump on as soon as the announcement made, but in hindsight this makes sense.

With a deposit bonus comes a pressing deadline, plus with bonuses previously this season the mechanics did not change meaning traders did not need time to react – they already likely had a clear idea who to buy from prior to the announcement.

With the share split confirmed, there is no pressing deadline. In fact, the new dividends do not take effect until the 26th March. Traders have time to digest what the split means to them and to the market in general. Also, it seems many traders are looking to try and capitalise on in play dividends by holding off purchases during the international break, so as to max out their 30-day initial hold.

Finally, its likely many existing traders have already committed much of the funds they are happy to invest in the platform. Multiple deposit bonuses in 2018 had already led to many maxing out what they felt comfortable risking.

So what does this mean?

The market has been stretched and as a result buying opportunities are available more so now than arguably anytime this season. The very healthy dividend increase likely means traders will be much more interested in chasing dividends rather than capital appreciation on unproven talent.

In the current market, research is more important than ever before, there have been only a few winners so far post-announcement, but before long there will be many more. A lot of players in the mid to low price range (both PB and IPD specialists) have currently been overlooked or left behind so that traders can invest further in more obvious, big player picks.

3 BuzzPro reports to help research players:

In-Play Dividends Report: Use this report to view goals, assists, clean sheets for any player from any time period – and then view players in specific price brackets such as £1 to £3. It’s probably the only place where you can view ALL goals and assists from ALL PB leagues in one place.

Advanced Player Screener with Match Data: Use this detailed report to filter and sort by match stats such as passes, shots, shots on target, crosses and match day scores and averages.

Advanced Price Move Report: Use this report to see which players have increased, fallen or stayed the same since the share split announcement. Maybe there are players who many traders have missed which you can pick up now prior to the share split being implemented on the 26th of March.

So, if you’ve got some cash sitting in your balance then head over to our BuzzPro reports and start slicing and dicing the numbers to see if you can pick out some hidden gems from an in-play dividends point of view or for summer transfer specs.

If you’re not a member of IndexGain then have a look at why you should sign up and if you are a free member looking to upgrade then head on over to this page to find out how to upgrade from free to premium.

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Written by IndexGain
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