In this blog post, we’ve got one of our members who goes by the IG name of “Fi mane for nothin” to tell us about how he successfully used our mobile assistant BuzzBot and advanced BuzzPro reports to help him research and find a player to buy on Football Index and how it turned into one of his most successful trades to date. So, over to Fi mane for nothin….Enjoy!
Hi all. Below I share how I used BuzzPro to make my most successful trade to date.
DISCLAIMER: If you like speculation and trading around hype then BuzzPro might not be the tool. If you enjoy taking the time out to trade based on logic and quality research then I couldn’t recommend BuzzPro highly enough.
For a bit of background, I’ve been a member of the Index Gain slack community for around 2 months and have enjoyed the quality trading discourse (in and amongst some off-piste conversations such as the most valuable crisp packet XI!).
Even before the introduction of BuzzPro, the mobile-friendly BuzzBot commands looking at average PB scores and previous dividend wins provided useful reassurance before entering trades that required a bit more reactivity. However, the creation of the BuzzPro reports & tools provided the means by which to identify those long-term rising prospects and potential ‘here and now’ dividend winners, the kind of trades we all constantly crave!
I wanted to share the story of probably my most successful trade to date on the index which was made courtesy of BuzzPro but I’ll also give some broader considerations on trading strategy which always have to be taken into account, these are based on my trading style and it is also to highlight that BuzzPro ain’t a black box, there is competitive advantage to be had in using it according to your trading style but also doing further research.
I’m sure the guys at Index Gain won’t mind me saying that the ‘Advanced Overs’ is the real hero of the platform and sits at the centre of the trade I am going to explain. This tool probably justifies the monthly fee on its own. Advanced overs compares players to have hit over a certain PB score i.e. are they capable of hitting scores big enough to win dividends and how often they have done it i.e. how often are they likely to be in the mix for winning dividends and maps these scores against their price to find comparative value.
Before you dive into this tool I would recommend forming a shopping list, I build these ‘shopping lists’ based around my trading style of trying to keep a balanced portfolio across positions, age groups and price ranges. I had identified I was light on defenders and didn’t have many sub £2 players in my portfolio, I wanted a young player with plenty of headroom for capital appreciation. I would also recommend timing your research and entry points here, there is new data to be analysed every day and if you’ve been on the index a while you’ll know often there are irrational sell-offs which create value opportunities, a good time to be researching the bargains.
So the first thing to do on the advanced overs tool, I set the following criteria:
- Position: Defender
- Price: Less than £2
- Age: Less than 25 years old (understanding the market trend is skewed towards younger players at the moment!)
To filter out those most capable of winning I needed to identify what kind of peak scores a defender needs to be hitting to be in with a chance of winning dividends. This is where you have to apply a bit of judgement to not set the bar so high that you’re unlikely to find hidden gems (if a defender has hit 200+ and won dividends, chances are they ain’t cheap anymore!).
I actually used the lowest possible benchmark of 115 for winning on a single game day, I wouldn’t use such a low benchmark if I wasn’t looking at the cheap, young end of the market and it wasn’t so early in the season (with less peak scores to analyse).
Once you have input all these filters, you have a nice scatter graph of players plotting the number of times they’ve hit above that score versus their price. You’re then looking for players in the top left corner of the graph i.e. cheap and hit these scores very often. One player stood out like a sore thumb out on his own with 4 scores over this score and at £1.31 was Mario Hermoso, he also had a 181 PB score in the mix, something that could win on a soft treble day and something that shows he is well capable of bigger peak scores.
Now at this point, another disclaimer, once you’ve shortlisted a player like this you still need to do a little more digging, I tend to look at the following for this kind of trade:
- Are they starting regularly? I want somebody on the pitch who is going to catch the eye of other traders as well as giving me a short-term opportunity to win dividends.
- Do they get outscored by their team mates? If they are playing with Sergio Ramos this might explain why they’re cheap! (You can use the BuzzPro player form analysis tool for this)
- How are their teams upcoming fixtures looking? If they have soft fixtures coming up then it increases the opportunity for a short-term rise and a dividend win from a big score.
In Hermoso’s instance, it was something of a perfect storm in that he had some soft single game days coming up and he was playing for Espanyol who are flying in La Liga. This gave me the confidence to ‘go big’ on this trade.
At the time of writing he has won dividends twice for me, has been called up to the Spain squad, has been linked to Arsenal and Real Madrid hence he is now £1.91. A total return of 46% in about a month, not a bad profit!
One final disclaimer: This is not a pump of Hermoso, I’ve made several trades this way I have just decided to highlight this trade as it has provided me with my best yield and he is an example of how to identify hidden gems before they hit those big rises you wished you were on! You may decide he is now over-valued or you might decide he still has room to grow. The beauty of the advanced overs tool is it can be used for buying, selling or topping up on your existing portfolio. It cuts out those irrational trading decisions such as “I’m holding such a such at a big profit and I like staring at the green”, “He’s just had a big rise, I’ve missed the boat”, “I’ve never heard of him, that PB score must be a one-off”.
Now I’m back off to see what else I can find on BuzzPro!