What are Media Day Dividends?
Media Day Dividends, formally known as Media Buzz (MB) is media coverage which earns the player points based on transfer rumours, injuries or news from the previous match performance.
The more media mentions a player gets on news sites, the more points he accrues and at the end of each media day (midnight).
On media days (where there are no matches from eligible match day competitions being played) the top 3 scoring media players will earn dividends for shareholders (6p per share payout for 1st, 3p per share for 2nd and 1p per share for 3rd).
On match days, only the top scoring media player will generate dividends (at 3p per share).
Reminder of the dividend table here.
How Do Articles Get Picked up by Football Index?
Football Index monitors the following news sites: Talksport, UEFA, The FA, ESPN, FIFA, Football League, Daily Mail, Daily Star, The Times, Telegraph, Independent, Express, Guardian, Metro, Daily Mirror, BBC, Football365, Goal.com, Huffington Post and Sky Sports.
Each article published to an RSS feed from these publications generates a score, the more positive the article, the more points it (in theory) scores.
The headline MUST include the players full name in the article including any special characters for it to be picked up by Football Index.
The score from each article is aggregated per player to generate a daily MB score.
How Does the Scoring Work?
It originated as a way to read sentiment from posts made by users on social media.
AFINN-165 model contains a word list of 3382 words rated from the very negative (-5 score) to the very positive (+5 score).
For example ‘breathtaking’ scores the maximum of 5 points where as ‘catastrophic’ scores a low -4 (the lowest -5 scores reserved for swear words and worse).
Each word in a headline is referenced against the list and generates a raw sentiment score accordingly for each word that matches. Words contained within a headline not found in the AFINN model are ignored. See this list of words used and the score for each word.
Finally, a base score of +20 is awarded for each headline created regardless of the sentiment contained within it.
The formula then for Buzz Score is
(sentiment score +1) * 20
So using the example headline
‘Perfect’ generates a sentiment score +3 and ‘Improve’ a score of +2. No other words generate negative or positive scores.
This is then calculated as: (3(perfect)+2(improve)+1) * 20 (base article score) = a total Buzz Score of 120
Picking a Buzz Winner
Predicting the news before it happens is no easy feat! However, it is certainly possible to include players in your portfolios that are statistically more likely to pick up media scores than others.
Let’s look at some stats of media scores taken for the first month of the 2019/19 season.
1) Premier League is King of the Buzz
Let’s look at the top 25 MB accumulating players.
It shows that 21 of the footballers listed all play in the EPL with only Messi, Neymar, Ronaldo and Marcelo making the top 25 from other leagues.
The reason for this is Football Index news monitoring incorporates UK based media companies who of course focus on serving their domestic readership. This means foreign leagues are given considerably less press coverage.
2) Always Bet on Red
The dominance of players for Liverpool and Manchester United is very apparent, clocking up more points between them than the next 4 clubs (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City and Juventus) put together. Note also that the top 5 buzz generating teams are all part of the EPL. In regards to Juventus in 6th, 92% of media articles were generated by a single player, Ronaldo (more on this later).
3) Player Position Matters
In short, the media like a goalscorer. It’s far easier to get column inches written about attacking players than those that play elsewhere on the field. The below looks at the combined scores of the top 50 players grouped by their position.
A clear advantage for players listed as forwards with defenders actually getting bigger aggregate media scores than midfielders.
4) Big Personalities
At the start of this season, Pogba and Ronaldo were the biggest buzz producers and its fair to say much of this interest was wrapped up in transfer-related stories. That said, big personalities drive further media scores in addition to scores accrued relating to pitch performance or to what team they might be moving to. Kane as an example, a great a player and a goal-scoring machine at a big club just isn’t going to generate stories like Pogba and his Gold Star haircut.
5) Transfer Dominance
All bets are off during the transfer window. Rumours can pop up out of nowhere and linger. This means the same player can win media dividends for days on end. During transfer windows, it pays to be following the right journalists on Twitter. As a trader, keeping a close watch on news sites can be very advantageous. At IndexGain, we source transfer related articles the moment they are published from various news outlets, mirroring sites that contribute towards media scores (BBC, guardian etc). This means the latest transfer news, fast & all published in one place (with the option to generate mobile alerts for players that traders may be interested in). This service is available to all Premium members.
6) Single-named players
There is a trend that single named players such as Neymar, Allison and Willian accumulate more points because of one-word names.
Media Buzz only works if the name of the player on football index matches the name in the headline. So for example, Dani Carvajal won’t get picked up by media buzz as his name is Daniel Carvajal on football index – no match. At the start of the season, Football Index updated the feed to include Jean Seri prior to his move to Fulham at the request of traders who wanted to profit from the buzz.
There is less chance of a single named player being excluded from the media buzz feed if he only has one name – and more of a chance of the feed picking up more headlines.
In summary, when targetting media dividends it pays to focus on EPL players. Only a handful of remarkable players buck this trend mostly in the form of Messi, Ronaldo and Neymar. Furthermore, attacking players at big clubs generate the most buzz, with Liverpool and Manchester United being the best source of column inches. Throw in a transfer saga and a big personality and you have a media dividend machine. Who matches all of the criteria? Pogba of course and running a dividend report via BuzzBot shows just how rewarding it can be when a player does possess all the media earning credentials.
A near 9% return in media dividends alone in 5 weeks.
So remember all of the above points when scouring for your next media dividend driven purchase.