NOTE: This is transcript of the Q&A and structured to make it easy to follow as a conversation.
thefiinvestor [8:59 PM]
Just a quick note, during the Q&A I’ll be posting 5 questions for our panel about the market and preparing for next season and they will provide their thoughts and opinions on the questions posted.
We’ll discuss each question for a 10 mins and then we’ll drop in a poll to our audience occasionally as we go through the convos – if things are flowing nicely then we’ll have the polls at the end.
Everyone joining us will then have the opportunity to ask questions to our panel at the end.
Ok, shall we kick off gents? @SOTD @BuzzingPaul @Liam Mcdonnell @Rio Index
SOTD [9:03 PM]
Liam Mcdonnell [9:03 PM]
I’m good to go
BuzzingPaul [9:03 PM]
thefiinvestor [9:03 PM]
Ok, first question….
There was a lot of hype pre-world cup that the market will boom with the influx of new traders and new money – but the current market seems to have come to a stand still, many say we’re experiencing a dip, what are your thoughts on the state of the current market?
SOTD [9:05 PM]
I disagree with this notion of stagnation. My port has grown 3% in last 14 days, which is great. Huge amounts of money haven gone in over last few months. Trends change and I think there was a lot of low players going up prior to World Cup, but some have reached a point where they need the new season to start to move up more. World Cup and next year PB is a big focus at the mo and we’ve seen some huge rises over past few weeks in players such as Suarez, Cavani , RLC. Some good rises yesterday in Lukaku and Kroos.
thefiinvestor [9:06 PM]
Great points, anything to add @BuzzingPaul? Noticing any trends from your side?
BuzzingPaul [9:08 PM]
Think I broadly agree with @SOTD above.
I think pre World Cup there was an over-reaction to cheap World Cup players and maybe new entrants bought into this hype. It’s my opinion that the World Cup should be viewed in isolation as a unique market event and new entrants should take solace from experienced traders who are commenting on how unusual particular movements are.
I’m expecting a stready shift toward MB players for the impending triple MB period prior to the start of the season and I don’t think it’s ever too early to invest in PB for next season.
SOTD [9:09 PM]
My portfolio weighting is pretty spread I wouldn’t say it’s top middle or bottom
BuzzingPaul [9:09 PM]
Opportunities still exist and the market is overreacting to certain countries impending exit. But in general I don’t think too much should be made of the ‘drop’
Liam Mcdonnell [9:10 PM]
I’d agree with SOTD and Paul to an extent. For me the world cups not really got going yet, we’re still in the groups with single day pay outs. Many people have been preparing for the World Cup for months so didn’t really expect tons to all of a sudden be pumped into the WC players.
Personally not seeing a dip,maybe stagnation in some areas maybe but mainly in areas where I think stagnation is right to be there, not everyone’s made to go up all the time. there’s so many options to invest in at the moment, next season players/ WC/ Transfer etc that we aren’t seeing massive rises constantly but when a rise is deserved they’re still happening, a good 40K gone into Kane since our opening game for example. So money is there, maybe not lots of new money which some may have expected but realistically no one signs up and drops thousands, the on boarding process takes time but the footie is ticking upwards and I think once knockout begins investment will become concentrated into top players progressing, and that’s when we’ll see most volatile conditions and biggest rises. Overall Im happy.
Rio Index [9:10 PM]
I dont think it has stagnated at all but I think the market has got far more sophisticated lately. I heard that it has stagnated but I just think a lot of traders are noticing a change in market behaviour and overreacting. I decided to stick to trading two strategies during the world cup but one of them just doesnt work like it used to so ive binned it for now. Before I would have been able to exit a player at a particular time during a trade cycle and come out in profit, now if I stuck to that same time I would be far to late. Also feel you cant count on certain logical rises like before. The current market moves feel like you have to think a lot more like the mainstream punter than the logical trader. Or The crowd logic rather than market logic.
SOTD [9:12 PM]
All pretty much agreed
thefiinvestor [9:12 PM]
Yep, I like the point the you make @Rio Index about thinking like a mainstream punter
BuzzingPaul [9:12 PM]
Unanimous opinion that the market is stagnating, need new investors to buy into this and not expect immediate returns from premium assets in such a unique market environment (World Cup)
Unanimous on the market NOT stagnating. Need new investors to buy into this, and treat the World Cup as the unique market environment it is.
Rio Index [9:14 PM]
I think the world cup just has not met some traders expectations because of the hype
but it was unknown and like @BuzzingPaul said should be treated like a unique market
Liam Mcdonnell [9:15 PM]
Exactly, but if you consider it like Europa/ CL we didn’t see huge rises for the groups/ early stages. Big money and volatility will more likely come as pay outs increase
SOTD [9:16 PM]
I disagree I think players rose and then it’s all about dividends. First week dividends were poor on ‘good players’ but are now beginning to pick up and with double and triple Pb soon will be great
Rio Index [9:17 PM]
Agree with @SOTD Ive had a good weekend of dividend returns after none during the first week
BuzzingPaul [9:17 PM]
It’s the short-termism of the World Cup that makes it unique for me. European club football is a full season of action. Whereas the World Cup has all the same volatility but crammed into a month.
thefiinvestor [9:18 PM]
Right gents! Let’s move onto question 2 as you finish typing up your last thoughts on this question…
We can continue at the end when the audience can throw in their 2p’s worth and ask questions also
What influence will the sweepstake have on the market right up until the final? Don’t forget, dividends start to increase from 30th June (Double PB) too.
SOTD [9:19 PM]
Not a huge influence. Hopefully attract some new customers, that would be the biggest influence.
Liam Mcdonnell [9:20 PM]
I think the sweepstake could of been better, expected more advertising of it. As a business I don’t think they’ll getting their 100K worth of advertising and activity out of it. But for existing, frequent traders it’s a real opportunity to grab some cash, doubt theirs many that’ll opt in and trade on every day so it’s great for us. In terms of its effect on the market I don’t think they’ll be much. Maybe one or two players will be favoured to be flipped on that day and present a little opportunity, Tripper and Bellerin seemed to get them today for example, but other than that I don’t think it’ll do too much. Think the dividend increase will have more effect than the 100K
BuzzingPaul [9:21 PM]
I’m in the same boat as the other panelists.
I’m not expecting a huge impact, but will be more than happy to be wrong.
Judging by twitter feedback I think the £100 trading requirement falls between two stools. Either it’s part of a normal daily trading budget, or far exceeds total deposit amounts.
SOTD [9:21 PM]
Everyone needs to remember a new customer now investing £50 might be a customer in “2 months time investing 20k.
Rio Index [9:21 PM]
The negative influence from the sweepstake is going to be an influx of over trading. I have read traders on social media asking who to punt there £100 on for the sweepstake. Especially as the dividends increase I think a lot of inexperienced traders will over do it just to qualify. Post wc this could see a lot of traders stuck with players in the red who they never wanted. I just hope traders stick to there plans and buy players they would have bought anyway with the same amount of risk. Personally for me if there is a good opportunity I will take it the same as I would have before if I qualify for the sweep stake then bonus
thefiinvestor [9:21 PM]
Great advice @Rio Index
BuzzingPaul [9:23 PM]
Today I invested my £100 in Trippier.
I think a more long term approach is better and will be investing ‘early’ in next season’s PB players from now on.
Rio Index [9:24 PM]
@BuzzingPaul I think that is the best approach
BuzzingPaul [9:24 PM]
I’d expect less in-play trading in general now as there are no games before the 2pm deadline anymore.
Liam Mcdonnell [9:25 PM]
Definitely the safest, providing you have the cash available to outlay £100 every other day
thefiinvestor [9:25 PM]
Don’t forget, the payout is £10,000 from Quarter Finals onwards :scream:
SOTD [9:25 PM]
FYI I bought a player World Cup hoping to advance with my £100. A player who I think will prob not fluctuate more than 10% if their team get knocked out
I will be playing every day
RC [9:26 PM]
As a side note – has Trippier risen FOR this World Cup? And ultimately, when England go out – is he worth significantly less as per last season?
I think, as a side note to the first Q, that’s a commonly missed point. Players often have stagnated / market stagnated – they’re dropping for valid causation because football is transient and so are the variables that being value? Sorry, I’ll shut up now.
SOTD [9:27 PM]
Replying to rc. think that’s the key at the moment which players in the wc have that value or near it (you need to take some risk) going forward
thefiinvestor [9:29 PM]
So, sweepstake……won’t have much impact but can be used for planning for next season….
Which leads me nicely onto our next question…
Q3….Many experienced traders are already prepping for next season – what advice would you give for new traders joining at this time? Any particular players you’re looking at or have bought recently in anticipation of the new season?
Liam Mcdonnell [9:30 PM]
It’s interesting because there’s been no real dip on players who hold little value over summer, if anything they’ve gone up, so yes, in some places I’ve got players for next season already, PEA, Alaba, a few young ones like Calhanoglu and Schick because I didn’t think they’d be sub £1 for Long given the prices of some young players who are miles away from starting 11’s.
For new traders I’d say it depends on your portfolio size, if you only have a small port then trade and try pick up dividends through summer then think about next season after the WC. If you have a big diverse portfolio, holding players who have no real reason to fall between now and next season that you’d expect to steadily rise can be a good balance, lower risk and mean that parts of your portfolio don’t need to be checked continually.
BuzzingPaul [9:31 PM]
My piece of advice would be to do your own research. There are plenty of great Football Index resources available to new entrants, but past performance is not an indication of future performance so make sure all your investments are backed up by robust investigation.
Rio Index [9:32 PM]
For new traders i would say Start slow and with a low amount of money to get used to the market and what makes it move. Be open minded to other traders opinions but always make a decision on whether to buy or sell from what you think by doing your own research because its your money that is at risk no one else. Also do not buy players just because you like them as footballers .
thefiinvestor [9:32 PM]
I do like this “past performance is not an indication of future performance”
@Rio Index that’s true, there’s some great footballers in real life – but rubbish for FI
BuzzingPaul [9:33 PM]
@Liam Mcdonnell mentions diversification. That’s another great trip and is key to any successful portfolio
Rio Index [9:33 PM]
Im not a fan of giving player tips because I believe good tips can become bad quickly if you buy at the wrong time when the value has gone but in anticipation for the new season i have got some Aubameyangs and some Banega both for PB and if Banega goes arsenal his media improves
thefiinvestor [9:33 PM]
What do you mean by diversification @Liam Mcdonnell @BuzzingPaul? Mix of players in different positions? Or leagues?
BuzzingPaul [9:34 PM]
Everything. Positions, leagues, teams, price, MB/ PB.
SOTD [9:34 PM]
I hold players for minutes , hours, weeks, moths, years. If you think they’ll go up or return dividends buy them. I think someone like Marcelo is a great buy at the mo, potential World Cup divis and great for Pb next season, I think that’s the type for new traders be involved now with value going forward
thefiinvestor [9:34 PM]
@SOTD you’re a big fan of defenders at the moment aren’t you?
BuzzingPaul [9:35 PM]
I like @SOTD response on this too. Diversify by anticipated by length of hold
thefiinvestor [9:35 PM]
Yep, that’s nice one I agree!
Liam Mcdonnell [9:36 PM]
A mix of players you hold for various reasons, so transfer players/ World Cup player/ Next season’s PB players. MB players. Helps to cover you for most market cycles. And yes diversifying by time is great also. Always good to have an idea of when you plan to sell someone before you even buy them
Rio Index [9:36 PM]
Also for new traders find out what works around your life style, do not try and day trade if you work 6 days a week and dont invest for the long term if you have a lot of time on your hands and get impatient easily
SOTD [9:36 PM]
I am as was last season. Kimmich seems to get a hard time. Ok compared against other defenders he might not score aswell on Pb . But compare him young players and other £3 players he looks ok to me. All depends what you compare against and with him at £3 shows the potential in defenders for me
thefiinvestor [9:36 PM]
I know @Rio Index is a fan of exit plans. It’s easy to buy, it’s hard to sell.
Rio Index [9:37 PM]
Before every trade i will have a few flexible exit plans. Obviously it depends if i think the player is going to go up or down and you or if the value is still there
thefiinvestor [9:38 PM]
@Rio Index is this a target price or % moves?
BuzzingPaul [9:38 PM]
@Rio Index I’m so bad at selling. But learning slowly and if you can hit close to 10% of the peak then you are in the right ball park
thefiinvestor [9:39 PM]
@SOTD you mentioned, you hold players for “minutes/hours/days” – do you also have a target in mind before selling?
Rio Index [9:39 PM]
Neither really. % i use as a guide only, i will usually have conditions, basically i might not want to sell until im up 20% but if you think the player is going down then you have to sell
thefiinvestor [9:40 PM]
@Rio Index Great, it’s easy to get suckered into “he’ll rise again soon”
Liam Mcdonnell [9:40 PM]
Depends how you look at selling too. many think if they sell and that player still goes up a bit after they should of held, but often it’s not best to squeeze every last penny out, can be hard to get rid when price starts to stagnate. Mainly depends what you use the money for once it’s freed up
SOTD [9:40 PM]
I don’t. I log on and see what I think st the time the index changes loads. I like a bit of risk I’m more likely to sell half on the way up and hold the rest than sell all
Rio Index [9:41 PM]
@Liam Mcdonnell good advice
thefiinvestor [9:41 PM]
Right, some excellent ideas and feedback there. Well done chaps! Let’s move onto Q4…..quick questions this one and the last…
Q4. Lets imagine you’ve won the sweepstake today (£2500) – which single player is your winnings going into. Can only be one. Don’t forget to tell us why too
SOTD [9:44 PM]
Hard I could list a load of punts I’ve got and many defenders but that’s boring. But think Eden Hazard is a solid buy , wc divis, transfer rumour, decent season next year.
Liam Mcdonnell [9:44 PM]
Probably Isco, I think Spain will go far and he’s more than capable of winning dividends any day. Already picked some up without scoring and I think as the larger payouts come in he’ll rise more. Could be a good shout for player of the tournament and that would be hard to ignore for the New Madrid manager. Think if he solidifies a starting spot next season he’ll be a great hold, with some frequent dividend returns. Lots of ifs and buts and I’d probably sell some as the tournament comes to an end if I was to put that much money into him but a very good hold IMO.
BuzzingPaul [9:44 PM]
@SOTD and a position change recently too
SOTD [9:45 PM]
Of course made a little difference too. I think people will look at him differently now a forward
Rio Index [9:45 PM]
Hard to say but if would have to be someone from the top end of the market. Hazard is a good shout as is isco. Ronaldo i think can do it for another year. Bring me all the divs. Balon dor is his again too lol
thefiinvestor APP [9:46 PM]
Index Gain Buzz Report for Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo (33) | Real Madrid | Forward
*Current Price* : £8.81
*Overall Rank* : #4
*Forward Rank* : #4
*Total Dividends* : £3.16
*Performance Buzz Divs* : £0.96 (9 Position + 4 Star)
*Media Buzz Divs* : £2.20 (23 x 1st, 12 x 2nd, 15 x 3rd)
*7d Holding Period Return* : -4.00%
*Current Media Buzz Score* : 810
*Current Media Buzz Rank* : 3
Index Gain Buzz ReportToday at 9:46 PM
BuzzingPaul [9:46 PM]
My one player would be Faouzi Ghoulam. He should get a full pre season under his belt following a fractured patella, prior to which he was posting elite (Top 5) PB scores.
The loss of Sarri ball and a ‘hangover’ from last season’s Serie A title race may impact Napoli as a team, but Ancelotti is a statement managerial signing who should motivate his players to perform in both Serie A and in the Champions League.
Most importantly, having IPOd at £1.80 and at a current price of £2.00 he has an effective stop loss of 10%. So relatively low risk.
SOTD [9:46 PM]
Btw there is a shit ton of good value at a lower price too
BuzzingPaul [9:47 PM]
Note he was IPOd post injury so elitle PB scores taken from 11 fixtures using WhoScored data
SOTD [9:48 PM]
I like the striker market who can can score goals
thefiinvestor APP [9:48 PM]
Index Gain Buzz Report for Faouzi Ghoulam
Faouzi Ghoulam (27) | Napoli | Defender
*Current Price* : £2.01
*Overall Rank* : #90
*Defender Rank* : #12
*Total Dividends* : £0.00
*Performance Buzz Divs* : £0.00 (0 Position + 0 Star)
*Media Buzz Divs* : £0.00 (0 x 1st, 0 x 2nd, 0 x 3rd)
*7d Holding Period Return* : -5.00%
No News At The Moment
Index Gain Buzz ReportToday at 9:48 PM
BuzzingPaul [9:48 PM]
Just look at those dividend returns!!
Liam Mcdonnell [9:48 PM]
Agreed @SOTD, realistically if I was spreading it I’d be looking Lower down. but in this scenario I don’t fancy 2500 of anyone at £1 when I don’t usually own anywhere near that many of one player at a time
SOTD [9:49 PM]
Think there are a lot of strikers between 1.20-2.00 just picking the right one!
Rio Index [9:49 PM]
I remember on twitter a quote from @SOTD Goals for dough, passes for show. GOAT quote
BuzzingPaul [9:49 PM]
Worth repeating the diversifcation advice too. Don’t invest all your prize money on one player.
thefiinvestor [9:50 PM]
Great stuff gents….FINAL QUESTION before we ask our audience to throw in their questions for a few mins….who’s going to win the World Cup & who’s gonna get the golden boot?
(I’ll stick a quid on it)
SOTD [9:51 PM]
Brazil & Lukaku
Rio Index [9:51 PM]
Spain and Lukaku
Liam Mcdonnell [9:51 PM]
I think Spain will win it. Only team to really have to play another top side so far and looked good. Would of walked it had it not been for one Cristiano Ronaldo, think they look best of the top teams. I think Diego Costa is key for them, finally an on form, natural number 9 so I think he’ll win the golden boot with maybe 7 goals.
BuzzingPaul [9:51 PM]
Spain, Costa. I’ll stick with my pre-tournament prediction of Spain. The Lopetegui sacking adds a great narrative and their whole squad is stacked 1-23. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Brazil lifted the trophy, but their lack of a Plan B and over-reliance on Neymar could be their undoing.
Diego Costa looks to be well rested after missing the first half of the season under the Atleti transfer ban. Ronaldo and Lukaku look set to go close but I distrust Ronaldo’s teammates and Roberto Martinez. I’m also ignoring Harry Kane because.. England.
thefiinvestor [9:53 PM]
Great shout their chaps! That concludes the Q&A and I’d like to thank our panel @SOTD @BuzzingPaul @Liam Mcdonnell and @Rio Index for joining us and sharing some good advice and insights
Boysie1984 [9:54 PM]
Very insightful. Thanks for taking the time.
RC [9:55 PM]
Thanks guys. Really, really enjoyed it
thefiinvestor [9:55 PM]
Audience, any FI related questions or thoughts on any of the insights already given which you would like to dig a bit further?
DNA [9:55 PM]
What price is Neymar in Dec 18? And what price will chasing pack be? ( Messi, CR7, Kane, salah). Guesses please…
SOTD [9:56 PM]
Think for me Messi is the less risky out the lot. Who knows where the market will go. £15 player is possible
Rio Index [9:57 PM]
Neymar a bit more than he is now
Liam Mcdonnell [9:58 PM]
I think Neymar could hit £15 if he picks up some good PB early next season. (Presuming no share split) I think messi will second him around £11/12 and the others are very very divided dependent. Ron/ Salah could be anywhere between 7 and 11 for me
CT [9:56 PM]
i signed up two weeks ago, did i just join at a particularly weird time in the index? with a good few WC players and no real grounding in PB what would be your advice for the way forward?
SOTD [10:00 PM]
@CT take your time and get a good feel for it. If investing in wc players buy ones you think will have value going forward from now
LG [9:59 PM]
What’s the biggest sting on a player you guys have had?
Liam Mcdonnell [9:59 PM]
@LG – For me I never own too many of one player, even with 40K port I still only own 400 max and until a few weeks ago that was 300. I think transfer seasons are the biggest times to get stung. I got done for about £150 when morata was “in Milan” last summer when the United deal fell through. But made it back pretty quick when I rebought for chelsea move.
RC [10:01 PM]
@LG – Last summer, Griezmann. I was on 10k profit, playing with a 10k portfolio. Went for a BBQ with 600 of him at £7.00… Flipped some Angus burgers, came back to him at £2.20 and >£2,000 down. Had to decide whether to walk away or stick with it, opportunities are ALWAYS there so I stuck with it, one year on and I’ve gone from £8,000 profit to £26,000 with no further deposits. So don’t let a significant loss deter you mate
thefiinvestor [10:01 PM]
Right traders! Time is up (partly coz the snooze function kicks in at 10 on Slack). Thoroughly enjoyed the chat. Great stuff!
Rio Index [10:01 PM]
Thanks for having me on guys
SOTD [10:01 PM]
Anyone who wants to carry on discussion feel free to @footballindexsd
thefiinvestor [10:02 PM]
@Rio Index @SOTD @BuzzingPaul @Liam Mcdonnell Thanks chaps!
CT [10:02 PM]
@SOTD thanks, getting there! thanks to all for convo – and to IG site – been v useful
thefiinvestor [10:02 PM]
Thanks for making the first Q&A an awesome one
Bishop [10:02 PM]
SOTD [10:03 PM]
Cheers guys good luck to everyone it’s still very early index days so hopefully we should all make money !!!
Liam Mcdonnell [10:04 PM]
And yep same here, @footballindexLM on twitter. Feel free to message me any questions or opinions! Would be wrong to end on anything other than “onwards and upwards”
SOTD [10:05 PM]
Footballindex edge 1 week free trial btw . So sign up and have a look
Gazzle [10:05 PM]
This is where FI should be sending you when you first sign up! @Bishop
BuzzingPaul [10:05 PM]
Thanks for having me @IndexGain. Highly recommended checking out the other panelists on twitter if you haven’t already. Any other questions/ ones that haven’t been answered hit me up here or on twitter.
Bishop [10:05 PM]
/poll “Just for fun… Audience if you won the £2500 prize draw, who would you invest in?” “Isco” “Hazard” “Ronaldo” “Faouzi Ghoulam”
Simple Poll APP: Just for fun… Audience if you won the £2500 prize draw, who would you invest in?
@Liam Mcdonnell, @Buzz Machine, @Lewis Turner
@RC, @Mark1609, @Gazzle, @thefiinvestor, @BL, @Ghomesh22, @CT, @LG, @Amber, @Mr Marcello A, @SOTD
@Toasterposter, @ShaneBos, @Jd, @MDJ
Faouzi Ghoulam: 1